Sunday, August 31, 2008

Olmert's Last Gasps? Are Palestinians Heading to “Prehistoric” Times?

Some details of the secret Olmert-Abbas negotiations are leaking out:

The talks reportedly include:
1. Carving up Jerusalem (see today's Ha'aretz story Olmert, Abbas: We still aim for peace deal by end of 2008 -- "Central in Olmert's proposal to the Palestinians is that the talks on sovereignty and control over the holy sites in Jerusalem be held under an international umbrella.... According to Olmert's proposal, a five-year timetable will be set out for completing a settlement on Jerusalem.... ) and

2. Tearing down Jewish settlements in the Jordan River Valley (see AP/Washington Post story today "...the fate of the [Jordan Valley] settlements is on the table again in peace talks. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat says Israel appears willing to cede the settlements while keeping troops in the area, possibly to be replaced by international border monitors. 'They don't want to keep the Jordan Valley, but they want certain arrangements,' Erekat said of his Israeli counterparts..." ).

Meanwhile, on Saturday Egypt's foreign minister suggested the possibility of an Egyptian force being stationed in Gaza to restore law and order. "The presence of Arab forces on the ground can help in preventing the fighting and stopping the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," Aboul Gheit told Egypt's October magazine.

Frankly, we've seen these ideas before, or as Yogi Berra put it, ""It's like déjà vu all over again."

Take a look at this article from National Review from five years ago. Arafat may be gone, but his ghost lives on:

December 22, 2003

After the Roadmap. Palestinians are heading to “prehistoric” times

By Lenny Ben-David

Looking back at the ten years of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, there were many historic events that captured the world's hopes and attention: the White House handshake, the Interim Agreement signing in Cairo, the Wye River Accord signed in the White House with the dying King Hussein in attendance, Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian cities, the beginning of joint Palestinian-Israeli security patrols, and the launch of multilateral talks on issues of water, environment, refugees, and economics.

All were indeed historic events; tragically, all were predicated on false Palestinian promises, Arafatian tricks, and American and Israeli delusions. I attended the Cairo signing in May 1994 and was one of the many incredulous observers when Yasser Arafat "forgot" to sign one of the agreements. We witnessed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak explode and demand that Arafat sign it, adding to his demand, "Ya kalb!" ("You dog!").

When Arafat rode into Gaza from Egypt for the first time in July 1994 — another great "moment" in modern history — Israeli intelligence officers noted how low the car was riding and how high up in the seat Arafat was sitting. Crammed into the Mercedes with (and under) Arafat were contraband weapons and terrorist operatives who were banned from entering the Palestinian territories. Israeli security sources also believe Arafat smuggled weaponry in his private jet after the Gaza airport opened with much media hoopla.

When Arafat accepted President Clinton's invitation to the Camp David negotiations in 2000, none of the American or Israeli negotiators anticipated him throwing agreement-busting demands of the right of Palestinian refugees' return to Israel and Israel's total surrender of Judaism's holiest sites in Jerusalem. Clinton was flabbergasted when Arafat denied that Jewish temples ever existed in Jerusalem.

In 1999, while serving as an Israeli diplomat in Washington, I was challenged publicly by a senior U.S. State Department official who rejected my charge that the Palestinian Authority was releasing Palestinian terrorists and murderers from jail. Subsequently, the world learned that the PA was not only releasing them but, in some cases, and under Arafat's orders, actually funding them and their terrorist organizations.

The photogenic joint-security patrols ended when Palestinian soldiers turned their guns on their Israeli patrol partners. The multilateral talks collapsed when Palestinians refused to attend. And Israel's withdrawals from Palestinian cities were reversed when the Israeli army was forced to reenter those areas to destroy terrorist bases and bomb factories.Yasser Arafat has spoiled, poisoned, corrupted, and undermined every peace proposal presented over the last decade. Every envoy tasked with advancing the Palestinian-Israeli peace process in recent years — George Mitchell, Anthony Zinni, and most recently John Wolf — have all returned home empty-handed. No wonder the late King Hussein of Jordan said of Arafat, "He never came to a bridge he didn't double-cross."

A sober and realistic look at the state of Palestinian-Israeli relations leads to the conclusion that perhaps it is time to return to "prehistoric" days, a time prior to the exciting photo-ops and masturbatory diplomacy (the feel-good, unproductive, and errant attempts at peacemaking).


What is "prehistoric" Palestine? Who ruled the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza prior to the Oslo Accords and Arafat, and under what conditions?

Israel. From the 1967 Six Day War until Arafat's arrival in 1994, Israel's Civil Administration ran the Palestinian territories. Attached to the Israeli defense ministry, the Civil Administration strove to turn much of the daily functioning of life in the Palestinian territories over to Palestinian civil servants. "Autonomy" was the goal, first suggested by Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin in 1978. Officials from Israel's ministries worked with their Palestinian counterparts, so that educational or agricultural experts from Israeli ministries assisted their colleagues. Palestinian doctors and nurses attended ulpan to learn Hebrew so that they could take advanced courses in Israeli hospitals. Palestinian sick frequented Israeli hospitals at the Civil Administration's expense.

That relationship will never return. As enlightened as Israel's administration was, it was viewed by the Palestinians as occupation. Moreover, in light of three years of warfare, Israelis' level of trust of the Palestinians is in overdraft, making such close Israeli-Palestinian cooperation a thing of the past. Israel's economy, devastated by three years of war and the flight of investors and tourists, will not take on the financial burden of administering to the Palestinians again. International largesse, which has kept Palestinian society afloat and Arafat's pockets filled, will not be offered to Israel for aiding the Palestinians.

Still, as long as Arafat runs his mafia state, Israel's army will remain on guard around Arab towns but will allow international aid to the Palestinians.

Jordan and Egypt. Between 1949 and 1967, Egypt controlled Gaza with an iron fist, and Jordan administered the West Bank, an area that it had annexed illegally in 1951. Palestinian nationalism was still in its infancy, and both territories were run like backwater satrapies.

Egypt and Jordan have much to offer as an alternative to Arafat and to Israel's administration of the territories. They both have peace treaties with Israel (although Egypt's behavior borders on belligerence). They both have established and relatively uncorrupt civil servants who could assist the Palestinians in establishing a functioning government. Both countries know Arafat all too well, and they know how to quell terrorism: ruthlessly. Not only do they speak Arabic, but they share with the Palestinians a religion, a way of life, and a way of thinking that Israelis will never fully comprehend. Jordanian and Egyptian police could help restore order on Palestinian streets where local gangs and chaos now rule.

It is unlikely that Palestinians would welcome with open arms a return to "prehistoric" times under Jordanian and Egyptian rule. Jordan's Hashemite troops reportedly killed as many as 20,000 Palestinians during Arafat's attempted Black September coup in 1970. Nevertheless, perhaps the Palestinians would accept their "brethren" if their presence were temporary and if it was the only alternative for moving the Israel army (and Arafat's thugs) out.

Britain. Palestine — Jewish and Arab — was controlled by the British between 1917 and 1948, and both Arabs and Jews made life hell for the Brits. Instead of the British, however, there has been recent discussion of bringing in international troops — from NATO or the United Nations — to serve as an international intervention force or a buffer between Israel and the Palestinians.

Another version would establish a trusteeship, led by the United States, for the Palestinian territories.Forget about it. International forces are anathema to Israel. Considering how the United Nations routinely gangs up on Israel and how worthless U.N. troops have been in keeping PLO and Hizbullah terrorists away from Israel's northern border, Israel will never accept such a force. For the Palestinians, such a force and/or trusteeship would be seen as one occupier replacing another. An international force would also be a lightening rod for all of the jihadist factions attacking the Western presence across the Middle East.

One more alternative remains: for the Palestinian people to rule themselves. It is a long shot, and it could be achieved only if Arafat were somehow removed from the picture, along with the hundreds of PLO thugs and apparatchiks he brought with him from Tunisia and the thousands of soldiers from Palestine Liberation Army contingents based in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Jordan, Algeria, and Iraq. They are all from the Palestinians' prehistoric times. They are the flesh-eating dinosaurs who know only the methods of terror and who feed on the flesh of innocents, including that of their own people.

A native Palestinian society that experienced life next-door to Israel may still exist, a society of bourgeois businessmen, educators trained in Western schools, journalists who published uncensored newspapers using Israeli presses, and the simple construction workers and fruit pickers who brought home from Israel a daily wage. They could perhaps one day propel themselves into better times — back to the future. They have extensive international assistance, and they are probably better-positioned and -educated than the Iraqi people to build a semi-democratic society. But unlike the Iraqi people, their progress is blocked by a despot.

==========
Post script: Abbas today continues Arafat's path of corruption, and Hamas continues Arafat's path of self-destruction. Can the Palestinian people pull themselves out of the tail spin before they crash again? Few are optimistic. It may be too late.

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Thursday, August 14, 2008

Putin: "I Love the Smell of Cordite and Crude Oil in the Morning"
Oil Pipeline to the West Is Shut in Georgia and Turkey

Russia's Vladimir Putin would personally like to tighten the noose around Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and hang him from a lightpost on Rustaveli Boulevard in Tbilisi. The former KGB agent loathes the man and the vibrant, pro-American democratic regime that began to flourish on Russia's southwestern border. [See the author's "Georgia on My Mind," November 2007]

There's no doubt that Putin is dedicated to undermining Saakashvili's government, one that seeks to join NATO and that provided -- until last week -- the third largest contingent of troops to the American coalition in Iraq. Frankly, some analysts thought that Georgia's pro-American policies would lead to Moslem terrorist attacks from al Qaeda or Chechyan bombers. Not enough attention, however, was paid to the champion of a resurgent new Soviet-like hegemony, Vladimir Putin, who may have just wrangled a treacherous diplomatic agreement that effectively gives him control of Georgia.

But pay attention to Putin's energy designs, as well. He's not only the new Russian czar; he's the energy czar. His aggressive foreign policy is buoyed by Russia's oil exports. High oil prices helps him; competition, particularly from new oil fields in nearby former Soviet vassal states, hurts him. And the new oil pipelines that go around Russia also deny him royalties.

One of the most demonstrative efforts to circumvent Russia was the construction of the 1,100-mile long Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which began pumping oil in 2005 from Azerbaijan to a Turkish port on the Mediterranean Sea via Georgia. The BTC has a capacity of 1.2 million barrels of crude oil a day, with much of the oil destined for Europe, the United States and even the Far East (shipped to Israel's port of Ashkelon from where it can be pumped to Eilat and oil tankers).

As explained in a New York Times analysis today, "American policy makers hoped that diverting oil around Russia would keep the country from reasserting control over Central Asia and its enormous oil and gas wealth and would provide a safer alternative to Moscow’s control over export routes that it had inherited from Soviet days."

Not now. Georgian news reports claimed that Russian aircraft tried to hit the pipeline. Whether they did or not, British Petroleum, the pipeline's operators, shut down the oil pipeline and a gas pipeline that pass through Georgia out of fear of the hostilities.

Strange that last week an explosion in Turkey also shut down the BTC at that point. According to Turkish press accounts, "The BTC pipeline explosion took place late Tuesday in a pump at a section near the eastern town of Refahiye, in Erzincan province. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) claimed responsibility for the blast."

Maybe not so strange. Think KGB.

Recommended reading:

1. Yesterday's analysis buried in the Washington Post's business section, Russia's Strike Shows the Power of the Pipeline by Steven Pearlstein. "It was surely not lost on Russia's bully in chief, Vladimir Putin, that the oil giant BP decided to shut down the pipeline that runs through parts of Georgia controlled by Russian troops. Indeed, that was one of the aims of the cross-border incursion," Pearlstein wrote.

2. The New York Times analysis Conflict Narrows Oil Options for West by Jad Mouawad. "Some analysts believe the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia is rooted not only in historical enmity, but also an outgrowth of Russia’s fears that Georgia, with its pro-Western bent, could prove to be a lasting competitor for energy exports," wrote Mouawad. 'Russians treasured the fact they had a monopoly on oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia, as it gave them considerable clout,' said Marshall I. Goldman, a senior scholar for Russian studies at Harvard... By agreeing to having an oil pipeline, Georgia made itself more vulnerable.'”

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Sunday, August 3, 2008

When Israel Saves Palestinians

Over the weekend, 188 Palestinian Fatah gunmen fled from Gaza to Israel to escape Hamas execution squads. Some had to be extracted by IDF soldiers under Hamas fire.

Later, PA President Mahmoud Abbas (safely ensconced in his West Bank redoubt) ordered the non-wounded men returned to Gaza where many were arrested by Hamas.

During the Hamas coup in Gaza in June 2007, Hamas assassins prowled Gaza hospitals to kill opponents lying wounded in their beds. With Hamas death squads throwing Fatah sympathizers off of hi-rise buildings, dozens of Fatah officials and gunmen, some “knee-capped” and severely wounded, fled to Israel where they were treated. (Pictured: Gazans fleeing through the Erez crossing point in 2007.) Shadi, a 23-year-old policeman, was attacked by Hamas gunmen: "There were five of them. They stood over me and shot my legs from the knee down. One of them put his Kalashnikov to my head. Instinctively I moved the barrel aside and the bullet hit my hand," Shadi told Ha'aretz. He arrived at Ichilov Hospital with one leg amputated and the other leg crushed.

History repeats itself in the most ironic manner. In 1970 Yasser Arafat attempted an armed takeover of Jordan, and King Hussein’s troops responded viciously in September 1970 (“Black September”). No quarter was given to the Palestinian fighters and civilians. Thousands died. Seventy-two Palestinians who were afraid of the Jordanian soldiers “chose to undertake the most humiliating action possible for them,” wrote one Israeli historian. They fled to the West Bank and surrendered to IDF soldiers.

Israel is often portrayed in the Arab press or on campuses as a genocidal monster starving, torturing or massacring Palestinians. But look where Palestinians fled in these three incidents -- to Israel.

And look at the news headlines this month and ask who is killing Palestinians:

Israel’s detractors are quick to blame Israel for the 1982 massacre at the Sabra and Shatilla refugee camp in Beirut perpetrated by a Lebanese Christian militia (estimates of the number of dead range between 800 and 1,500).

Last year, hundreds of Palestinians were believed to have been killed during a three-month battle when the Lebanese army leveled the Nahr-el Bared camp (pictured, right), home to an estimated 30,000 Palestinian refugees.

Nahr-el Bared was no different from the Tel al Zaatar refugee camp north of Beirut that was attacked during the 1976 Lebanese civil war by Christian militias supported by the Syrian army. (2,000 – 3,000 Palestinians were killed.)

After watching Palestinian fighters seeking Israeli shelter this week it is tempting to quote Menachem Begin’s comment after the Sabra and Shatilla massacre: “Goyim (gentiles) kill goyim, and they blame the Jews.” But one can also add, “Jews save goyim, and they still blame the Jews.”

Post Script: Wikipedia’s entry on Nahr al-Bared includes this line.

The different sectors of the camp are named after areas of what is now the northern Israeli Galilee region : Safourieh, Sasa, Safad, etc. Other sectors are more commonly known by the origins of the families living there: e.g. the "Maghrebi" area where families originally from Algeria, Tunisia or Morocco who had moved to Palestine in the 1930s now live.

Re-read this item carefully; its “hasbara” significance is so great that it will probably be excised from Wikipedia as a result of this blog posting. The Wiki item, presumably written by an Arab or UNRWA source, admits that Arabs from northern Africa emigrated to Palestine only a few years before the establishment of Israel. Some analysts have long argued that not all the refugees from 1948 were “native” Palestinians and that many came to Palestine because of the increase of employment opportunities that were generated by the Jewish immigration.

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