Guest Response from Journalist and Author Gideon Remez

Right on. Your questions about the MiG 29s are very apt and timely -- Isabella and I were startled last night by this development too. I think, however, that the Russian contingent that arrives in Lebanon with the planes will not be limited to the "advisors and instructors" that you correctly listed. Since given the Lebanese air force's current shape it will take years to recruit and train the necessary complement of pilots, if the planes arrive before then they can only be flown by Russians if not Syrians/Iranians.

In this respect the effect of the MiG-29s in Lebanon will resemble what is to be expected when the Russians complete the upgrading of their facility at Tartus to a full-fledged naval base, protected by Soviet-manned SAM systems, and their aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetzov (with MiG-29s as well as Su-27s) either is based there or visits as necessary. The IAF will, at the very least, be seriously constrained in repeating an operation like the attack on the suspected Syrian reactor, and it certainly will no longer be able to overfly Lebanon, much less attack targets there, with impunity.

Regarding question 12 -- according to one of the reports we saw (in the London Times), the head of Russia's defense cooperation agency mentioned potential supply of "heavy armor" to Lebanon too.

Finally, the putative Lebanese deal combines with the increasing indications that the Russians have no intention of keeping their word to Olmert about refraining from S-300 sales to Iran and Syria; according to a breaking news headline that just now came onto Fox news, Moscow has officially announced the sale to Iran.

This pattern underscores the futility of attempts to buy off the Russians with such gestures as handing over the Sergei Courtyard [in Jerusalem], exempting Russian tourists from visas, or -- worst of all -- selling them Israeli UAV's out of trust in their end-user commitments.

It is a grave underestimation of the Russians to believe that their concept of national interests and priorities can be changed by such offerings, or that (as we were told by a senior intelligence analyst!) "Putin has a soft spot for Israel."

Isabella Ginor and Gideon Remez are the authors of Foxbats over Dimona, The Soviets' Nuclear Gamble in the Six-Day War

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