20 Questions about Lebanon’s New MiG-29s

Lebanon’s Defense Minister Elias Murr announced this week in Moscow that Russia offered to give Lebanon 10 refurbished MiG-29 fighter jets. The planes will certainly not tip the Arab-Israeli arms balance, but there are many questions surrounding the arms transfer:

1. Does the Russian “sale” indicate a shift away from Lebanon’s long-standing policy of acquiring American weapons? Russian aircraft come with Russian advisors, instructors, radars, weapons and combat doctrine.
2. Will the Lebanese government approve of Defense Minister Murr’s deal and the concomitant change of orientation? The deal requires government approval.
3. Will MiG-29s in Lebanon be interoperable with Syria’s 65 MiG-29s and Iran’s 25 MiG-29s?
4. Will Lebanon’s MiG-29 aircraft and support facilities serve as forward bases for Iran and Syria? Tours conducted by this author of Georgian airbases several years ago indicated that the Soviet Union planned to use Georgian bases as forward refueling, maintenance and re-arming stations against the West. The bases were chockablock with Soviet missiles, ammunition and bombs.
5. What happens after Lebanon’s May 2009 elections when Hizbullah may become an even more prominent player in Lebanon’s government?
6. Will Hizbullah be integrated into Lebanon’s army which is already estimated to be one-third Shiite? In the 1980s the army’s Sixth Brigade – predominately Shiite and trained by Americans – realigned itself with Lebanese militias. The Brigade rightfully earned its reputation, “We serve and defect.”
7. Will Hizbullah have access to the aircraft?
8. Will Hizbullah pilots be trained in Iran or Syria to be on standby for taking over the planes?
9. Against whom does Lebanese Army need MiG-29s, a plane comparable to the American-made F-15?
10. Will the Lebanese Army ever take on the potent Hizbullah army, trained and equipped by Iran? Today, there are vast Hizbullah areas in Lebanon’s south and Bekaa Valley where the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces dare not to tread.
11. Will the Lebanese army share the Russian equipment, such as the radars, with Hizbullah? That was the case when Hizbullah attacked and almost sank an Israeli ship during the 2006 war. The ship was tracked by Lebanese army radar stations, later destroyed by Israel.
12. One of the biggest threats to Lebanon today is the growth of al-Qaeda in the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. The fighting last year in Nahr el Bared against Fatah al-Islam took more than 100 days and cost the Lebanese Army dozens of casualties. The Lebanese army needs heavy tanks, armored vehicles and combat helicopters for that kind of intense urban fighting, not fighter jets. What good are MiG29s in this fight?
13. Will the Lebanese Air Force use the MiG-29s to challenge Israeli overflights of Lebanon? Israeli aircraft are constantly tracking Hizbullah’s build-up and missile acquisition which Hizbullah does with impunity in violation of UN resolutions 1501 and 1701.
14. How will the Israeli Air Force respond to Lebanese jets flying south of the Litani River and approaching Israeli airspace?
15. What is Russia getting out of the deal? Clearly Russia is challenging American hegemony in the Middle East. The deal “is an effort to reassert Russia's status in the Middle East in a way that has very high visibility," said analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
16. Is the MiG-29 deal a Russian response to American and Israeli military support for Mikhail Saakashvili’s Georgia?
17. How will the U.S. react to the deal? Is the MiG-29 transfer a shuk tactic to get the United States to increase its support for the Lebanese army? Last year the U.S. military assistance to Lebanon amounted to $400 million.
18. Will the U.S. respond by selling advanced fixed-wing aircraft to Lebanon? Currently, Lebanon has two 1960-vintage Hawker Hunter jets.
19. What level of Western technology in Lebanese hands will undermine Israel’s military edge?
20. In May 2008 Hizbullah occupied Beirut, and the Lebanese Army vanished. The action took place after the Lebanese government attempted to replace a Hizbullah-affiliated chief of security at the Beirut airport and tried to shut down Hizbullah’s independent fiber-optic communications network. Can security really be provided for any advanced military equipment in Lebanon?

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