Analysis: That’s Not Rain Falling on Ashkelon Heads Will Israeli Government Respond to Katyusha Fire from Gaza?

A 122-mm Katyusha rocket was fired from Gaza this morning and fell in a residential neighborhood north of Ashkelon some 16 kms (10 miles) from the Gaza border. While no one was hurt, the ramifications for the region on the eve of President Bush’s visit could be immense.

For seven years Israel’s governments have been insensitive and obtuse to the plight of Israeli citizens of Sderot and environs who have suffered from the terror of the smaller Qassam rockets and mortars flying out of Gaza. But when 30-kilo Katyusha warheads fall on the heads of 100,000 Ashkelon residents and strategic targets such as a critical power plant and a port, maybe even Ehud Olmert will take note.




[Google Earth provides a satellite glimpse of the proximity between Ashkelon and Gaza. A map available at the University of Texas map collection online is a good reference for current and future events in and around the Gaza Strip.]



Not long after Yasser Arafat’s arrival in Gaza in 1994, Ariel Sharon told me that the Palestinians had succeeded in smuggling Katyusha rockets into Gaza. They were held under the Palestinian Authority’s lock and key. When Gaza fell to Hamas last summer so did the rockets. Subsequently, the several dozen Katyushas were supplemented by scores more that were smuggled into Gaza from Egypt through the infamous tunnels.

Clearly, the rockets are coveted by the Palestinians. Exactly six years ago to the day the PA’s Karine A ship was intercepted with its 50 tons of Iranian-supplied weaponry, including 50 Katyushas.

Today’s Katyusha was not the first fired from Gaza. In March 2006 a Katyusha was fired and fell harmlessly near a kibbutz. But today’s Katyusha fell in a populated area, and its launch crew may have been trained in Iran. These rockets are assembly line weapons; not Qassam rockets made in some Gazan back-alley workshop. While Hamas now has tons of high quality explosives to improve the Qassam lethality, they can’t approach the Katyusha’s 22 km (14 mile) range. (Note the pictures: The Katyusha requires two men to carry; the Qassam only one.)

There are tens of thousands of Katyushas available on the black market around the world or being manufactured by “Axis of Evil” countries. A couple of years ago I photographed hundreds of the rockets stacked pell-mell at a supply base in an eastern European country. The base’s security was almost non-existent, and no inventory measures had been taken to indicate whether weapons were missing.

Hamas clearly seeks to replicate Hizbullah’s tactics and successes against Israel. Both are funded and trained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Long-range indiscriminate rocket fire and tunnels (see Mining for Trouble in Lebanon ) are their trademarks. Israel’s northern residents evacuated their cities and towns when they suffered Katyusha barrages in previous attacks. A large percentage of Sderot’s citizens have left because of the Qassams. Will Ashkelon be next?

No doubt, Syria and Iran want to disrupt Bush’s visit any way they can.

Lebanon, beware.

Sphere: Related Content